Turkey journalist scenario

Initial scenario
21st July 2019

The scenario opened with a Kurdish-Iraqi journalist, Rashim Kahir, being arrested in Turkey while writing for the New Statesman about the human rights abuses carried out by the ruling AK parti particularly in Kurdish-speaking areas.

Full news report:

Chamber Breaking News

Rashim Kahir, a Kurdish-Iraqi born British journalist for the left-wing magazine the New Statesman, has been arrested in Turkey for the alleged support of a terrorist organisation. He had travelled to the region to write about the human rights abuses from the ruling AK Parti, especially in the Kurdish-speaking areas. His first article was about the case of Bilal K., a Kurdish student accused of being part of the terrorist organisation the PKK. The accusations, however, have been shown according to Kahir, to be false.

Kahir, born in 1984 in the Kurdish area of northern Iraq before moving to the UK in 1995 to attend Sevenoaks School in Kent, is famous for his controversial columns like "The Joyful Death Of The English Nation" and his freelance work for the Guardian and the Morning Star, often writing on the corruption and human rights abuses in Eastern Europe since the fall of communism. Recently he became the New Statesman’s middle east reporter and was on only his assignment when the incident took place.

The arrest happened on the morning of Sunday July 21st as Turkish police reportedly raided his hotel in Diyarbakir at around 6:30am local time. It is believed that he had been being watched for some time, and the action was taken after Kahir’s first report was published online on Saturday. At this moment it is unknown the severity of the sentence that could be handed down to him, however he has been refused bail according to a New Statesman tweet this morning, and is it believed that Turkey may resist extradition or release to the UK due to the nature of the charges.

The Turkish government has in the past few minutes issued this statement. “Rashim Kahir was arrested this morning on charges of supporting a terrorist organisation, and conspiracy to aid in terrorist activity. We have been monitoring Kahir for several weeks since he was first noticed around verified members of the PKK after entering the country on June 24th. It is known that he is a journalist working for a British paper however police and intelligence services noted abnormal activity from the individual and upon closer investigation it has been found that he had not come to Turkey simply to report. Kahir will now be held by the authorities until his trial, where the full complement of evidence compiled by our excellent intelligence services shall be revealed.”

In a statement from the New Statesman, the paper have called the charges “ridiculous” and said that Kahir is an “outstanding investigative journalist with an unquestionable moral code” who “would never aide or abet a terrorist organisation, no matter their intentions or justifications, and would always obey the laws of the country he was in”. In response to the arrest, the New Statesman also say they have released all information sent to them by Kahir during his time in Turkey to the British government, and will happily offer the same to Turkey should it be requested.

** The Government has 24 hours to respond in an official capacity, and other parties and coalitions are invited to as well**

Government response
The government responded by issuing a diplomatic notice to the Turkish government and summoning the Turkish ambassador to ensure Mr. Khahir's immediate release. They notified their NATO allies and gave advice to British journalists in Turkey.

The full government response:

Ladies and Gentlemen,

the Government has been made aware of a potential human rights violation in the Republic of Turkey this evening.

The embassy in Istanbul received word that Rashim Kahir, a journalist for the publication "The New Statesman", has been arrested while on assignment reporting in South East Turkey.

We would like to extend our assurances to Mr Kahir that the Government has issued a diplomatic notice to the Turkish government and summoned the Turkish Ambassador to secure his immediate release.

The Prime Minister has assembled an immediate meeting of his cabinet and notified our NATO allies of the situation. Please standby for further statements.

The Foreign Office has advised any British journalists who are within the nation should contact the British embassy within Turkey, or the Foreign Office directly if they feel their life is in danger or they are at risk of harm.

Bobby Kuburovic

Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs

Chief Whip of the Radical Centrist Party

After failing to release Rashim Kahir, the government additionally froze assets of those in Turkey involved in human rights violations, called for the UN to investigate Turkey's actions, and pledged to bring trade and economic sanctions against them if necessary.

Full government statement:

The Turkish government has failed to release Rashim Kahir, a British journalist operating in the region. Our intelligence services have confirmed to us that whilst he was working on a story concerning the PKK he had no involvement with their actions and is innocent of the claims brought against him by the Turkish government. This is simply an infringement on the freedom of the press by a state actor and an attempt to silence someone who may speak out against it. We have already diplomatically protested the Turkish government to ensure the safe release of Rashim Kahir and we have been in close contact with the British embassy there working to secure it.

However due to the fact the situation is still ongoing, and the Turkish government has ignored our attempt at diplomacy, the Government has chosen to use the powers given to us under the Sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering Act 2018. This allows us to freeze financial assets within the United Kingdom of any designated person(s) who are involved in the human rights violations within Turkey and we will be enacting a statutory instrument, The Turkey (Sanctions) (Human Rights) Regulations 2019 as soon as possible to freeze assets of any designated person who is involved with the violations, or supporting them. The Government will also be working with its allies and calling for the United Nations to investigate the actions of Turkey to ensure any relevant trade and economic sanctions can be brought against them only if necessary. In the wake of the tragic death of Jamal Ahmad Khashoggi we must do everything we can to protect press freedom from an oppressive regime.

Thank you,

Sir Joseph Denton

Home Secretary

Development
President Erdogan of Turkey responded by doubling down on claims that Rashim Kahir was a terrorist. The US demanded Turkey provide evidence that the case against him is strong and Russia backed up Turkey in calling for stricter measures against terrorism. It was reported that a tape of the encounter between Kahir and the Turkish intelligence existed.

Full news report:

This morning President Erdogan of Turkey held a press conference in which he spoke of the arrest of British National Rashim Kahir. This comes the day after the UK called for his release, and placed economic pressure on Turkey to do it. Relevant and important parts of the press conference have been translated below.

“It is perhaps fitting that the British government has made a vain attempt to intervene in our politics just days after it failed to protect its own ships with its floundering military. It has overextended its hand and tried to pretend it is still the empire it formally was, with any sort of influence or power in the world. Rather than trying to release terrorists from other’s prisons, perhaps they should be protecting their own ships and trying not to make an fool of themselves internationally. They may impose their sanctions and try and use their economic power however Turkey will not be aggravated or retaliate as we are above that as a nation.”

“Kahir conspired against the Turkish government with an undercover member of our brave and brilliant intelligence services. This isn’t a place for Britain to intervene, it is clear that Kahir harbours anti-Turkish sentiments and planned to act on them had we not stepped in, and that his cover of journalism was a paper thin alibi we could all see through.”

In the closing of his speech, President Erdogan cited the cases of Ozcan Keles, Akin Ipek, Ali Celik and Talip Buyak, all of whom have been refused extradition from the UK to Turkey this year. It is believed he was incensed by the audacity of the UK to call for such a hypocritical extradition and that he has decided to travel to personally oversee the interrogations and trial.

The US has led international called for Turkey to release full evidence and prove to the international community that there is a strong case against Kahir, whilst Russia has backed Turkey and called for stricter measures to be taken to stop terrorism.

British intelligence has yet to find any proof corroborating Turkey’s official story and they seem highly sceptical, however it is believed that the encounter between Turkish intelligence and Kahir was recorded and played back at an initial hearing yesterday. While the tape has yet to leak, it would be the conclusive proof British intelligence needs.

Two days later, the tape was leaked.

Full news report:

Finally today the coveted tape, supposedly containing incriminating evidence to condemn British journalist Rashim Kahir, was leaked to the papers. Whilst the original video had been corrupted in its smuggling out of a Turkish courtroom, the transcript has been released below.

This exchange is believed to have took place last Friday or Saturday, between an undercover Turkish intelligence agent posing as a PKK member, and Rashim Kahir. It is not known at this time how the meeting was arranged.

* In Kurdish*

PKK: Anyway, what brought you here again?

Kahir: I’m just trying to find out about this kid, Bilal Karim.

PKK: Who?

Kahir: Never heard of him?

PKK (upset): Ey, do I look like a fucking Wikipedia or some shit?

Kahir: I’m surprised you even heard of it here…

PKK (upset): Fuck off.

Kahir (laughs): Ey, not my fault, there’s barely any internet here.

PKK: Just quit fooling around, I’m not even with them. Only my cousin. Who’s the kid?

Kahir: Essentially, he’s from here and went to university in Istanbul… Well, went.

PKK: And what’s it got to do with us?

Kahir: He was allegedly a member of the local PKK branch here. They arrested him about two months ago.

PKK: Fucking hell.

Kahir: Yeah, it’s essentially a life sentence for this kid. If not worse, you never know with this watermelon selling cunt.

PKK: Yeah, it’s shit.

Kahir: Not a mention from your cousin or anything? Nothing?

PKK: Nah. I can tell you what could get a mention though. (points at the window) You see that house over there?

Kahir: The one with the broken window?

PKK: Yeah, fucking Grey Wolves turned their life into a living hell. The guy living there was a professor of political sciences.

Kahir: What was his name?

PKK: Erdehan Uzun. A wise lad. Fucked off to Canada with his family.

Kahir: And noone gave a shit?

PKK (laughs): Good one, Kahir! Fucking good one! You think these fucking biterbets wanking off to the Ottoman fucking Reich would actually step in to help a “Kurdish scum”? You really are fucking naïve, kid.

Kahir: Might do a story on that as soon as I’m done with the student one…

PKK (angrily): Like, I’m a fucking atheist but Allah willing, if my cousin won’t get them, I will!

Kahir: Relax, I’ll make a report…

PKK (angrily and condescendingly): Ooooooh, look at me, I’m reporting here, I’m the liberal fucking God of the west, go suck my fucking donkey pussy for that! You really think you mean something, huh? Who are you even to tell me to fucking “relax”, huh? Did you even know them? Did you went to school with his kids like we did?

Kahir: Sorry, geez.

PKK: You actually think a fucking newspaper report will help here?! Really? Nah, my cousin is already planning on shooting the shit out of these fucks, they’re gone by the end of next week.

Kahir: Wew…

PKK: And you keep your fucking mouth shut.

Kahir: Relax, these sons of dogs piss me off too. Plus, I have to protect my sources in order not to damage my case, so yeah.

PKK: You better fucking do.

Kahir: Anyway, you know who I can talk to in case of this kid?

PKK: What was his name again?

Kahir: Bilal Karim.

PKK: Sorry, not really. Look for other clues.

Kahir: You know when your cousin is available?

PKK: What is it, a fucking fag brothel or some shit?

Kahir: Alright, apologies. I’ll look for other info. Thanks for the invite though.

PKK: Yeah, it’s fine. Just don’t tell anyone we’re planning to shoot up the Ottoman fucks.

Kahir: Relax, we won’t.

* Kahir leaves the apartment* Despite Turkey falsely maintaining this was the evidence that would put Kahir behind bars, officials have said their case against him remains strong, and courtroom leaks are being plugged to ensure a fair and private trial. British intelligence suspected that the meeting between an undercover Turkish intelligence agent and Kahir was the reason for his arrest, and the release of the transcript of the encounter has seemingly confirmed this to be the case, with Kahir being arrested on political grounds.

Further government response
The government responded by announcing that they had exhausted all diplomatic options and by launching a small armed mission to break into the prison and release Kahir.

Full government response: disclaimer: the speakers asked us to publish something making the chamber aware of the situation, we obviously would not announce this type of thing ahead of time under different circumstances.

Good evening, I am sorry to wake you during this dark hour.

There comes a time when a nation must take a broad stance against tyranny. There comes a time when a nation must protect its interests and its peoples at all costs.

Days ago under the direction of President Ergodan, a British citizen was abducted in the North West region of Kurdistan because of the honorable work he has done covering the crimes the Turkish regime has committed against the people of Kurdistan.

The Government has exhausted diplomatic options. The British state will not be held at ransom by dictators. It is our position that the Turkish state resigned its membership in NATO the moment it took a British citizen as a political prisoner.

As a result of this offense, at this very moment, a small group of professionals from Her Majesty’s Armed Forces are on their way to the Diyarbakir prison to bring our man home.

We are in difficult times when upstanding men must move quietly into the dark night and do harm but our resolve will carry us through. We are British. We shall overcome tyranny. We shall overcome authoritarianism. We shall prevail.

Richard Petron

Prime Minister

Leader of the United Left

Further development
The military operation was a failure: Kahir was killed, 6 SAS troops were killed, and 7 were captured by Turkey. 19 Turkish soldiers and guards were killed. The government faced strong international criticism.

Full news report: Last night British forces attempted a daring rescue on British Journalist Rashim Kahir. The odds were stacked against them from the off. 50 British SAS troops HALO dropped into Turkey on the orders of Prime Minister Richard Petron and Defence Secretary Alex Hicks. The transport plane was spotted 7 minutes before reaching the drop zone according to reports from Turkey, however it was able to drop all 50 troops and make it out of Turkey again. 47 of the troops managed to land at their designated drop zones on and around Diyarbakir prison, with one dying due to a mistimed landing and 2 landing off course and escaping as per orders.

From the 47, a group of 12 moved to secure Rashim Kahir, while the remaining 35 secured the building and escape routes. By this point the nearby military bases were being mobilised, and the police station up the road had been activated. The SAS managed to secure Kahir and the necessary passages with only 1 casualty, shooting 24 guards in the process, killing 6 of them. Until this point the mission was progressing well.

As the SAS began the second part of the operation, extracting Kahir from the prison, the first units of Turkish military reached the base and slowed progress. One group sought to cut off exit points whilst another breached the prison in a pincer movement. 12 minutes after landing, the remaining 46 SAS soldiers came under fire from within the prison as Turkish soldiers began to squeeze the forces within the prison wings. Turkish forces targeted Kahir, and he and 2 SAS soldiers were caught out and shot dead, whilst 3 suffered severe injuries. As the message broke that the target was dead, the mission parameters changed to attempting to get out and then breaking off individually to escape to the Syrian border and out.

The Turkish Military continued engaging the British SAS soldiers during the escape, until finally, 29 minutes after landing, the guns fell silent. By this point, one more SAS soldier had been killed, while 13 Turkish soldiers had been mortally wounded, and 7 more injured. 37 troops made it out free and have since made contact with Britain, whilst Turkey have confirmed that 7 had been captured, 5 of whom were injured and 2 who have subsequently been caught in the following hours.

All troops were provided with Kurdish contacts to aide their escape, being told to make it to the Syrian border where they would be extracted.

It has been 7 hours since the beginning of the mission, and 12 troops have so far made it back to the evacuation point, whilst 25 remain safe in Turkey. It is expected that many may stay put for days, weeks or even months due to the massively increased military presence on the borders as a result of this mission.

Critics have today turned on the PM and Defence Secretary, struggling to understand the rationale of such a high risk operation, whilst others praised them for trying a bold move. One thing is for sure though, the international community has hit back hard. Turkey immediately stepped up their military presence around all borders, as well as around Cyprus and especially the two RAF bases there. The 7 captured British soldiers are being held and Turkey have promised they shall see justice for the deaths of Turkish soldiers and prison guards. The UN, NATO, and Trump among others have condemned the UK for their actions, threatening sanctions and more should the situation escalate any further. Turkey has also requested the UK is removed from NATO, and withdraws it’s troops from Cyprus.

Erdogan this morning held a press conference, hailing his forces for stopping the raid, and promising that Turkey would always be strong enough to defend itself and its interests. It would appear that his popularity has skyrocketed in Turkey due to the incident, just as it looked like his grip on the country might be loosening.

** this scenario was created using a 1-20 measure of probable outcomes, and the roll of dice. The scenarios team has used all possible information and expertise to consider all outcomes and calculate their likelihood**

Reaction within the chamber
The operation was equally controversial in the chamber. It drew criticism from the Chamber Workers Party (CWP), Neoliberal Party (NLP), Chamber Marxist Party (CMP), The Minarchist Party (TMP). It did, however, draw praise from the One Nation Party (ONP). Particular contention occurred over whether diplomatic avenues really had been exhausted by the government, with the CWP characterising the government's diplomatic efforts as "lacklustre" and the operation as "extremely brash" and "careless". The TMP agreed that the diplomatic efforts were insufficient, that detention of a journalist was not a military action so Britian was the aggressor in the situation, and that it would damage our ongoing trade negotiations with various nations. The NLP expressed scepticism over the diplomatic efforts, pointed out that an attack on one NATO country is considered an attack on all, and called for resignations in the government. The CMP called the operation an "abject failure", said the government had caused an "international crisis" in attacking a NATO ally, and called for strikes and protests. The leader of the ONP, on the other hand, said that they were critical of the initially "weak" response of the Prime Minister, but said that the (then planned) operation was "It was bold, brave, and exactly what I wanted to see".

Government retrospective response
The government gave a retrospective response a short while after the operation was carried out, apologising for taking an "unwise risk" and giving their reasoning for carrying it out.

Full government response:

* At a live broadcast event*

I would like to start this off by saying that, as a coalition, we let everyone who suffered as a result of what happened in Turkey and the British people who elected us down. With hindsight, it is clear that we took a risk that was unwise and miscalculated in our eagerness to save someone’s life.

However, I would like to clarify exactly why we made the decision we did. When first faced with the Turkey situation, when I was still Prime Minister, our first instinct was of course a diplomatic option, while still coordinating with military officials to discover whether a covert ops mission had a decent chance of success. Our diplomatic efforts were rebuffed. Now, our new Prime Minister was faced with three credible but horrible options going forward. One, leave Rashim Kahir to die in Turkey and leave it there. Two, send incredible amounts of money to secure Rashim’s release, something that would not credibly be able to pass through the house, with C&IP clearly against, and the CLP’s fiscal policy well known. Then three, approve an SAS led mission to retrieve Rashim. Our other attempts to try and influence the diplomatic way forward after their breakdown we were unable to secure support from the main opposition parties.

At the time we thought this the best course of action we could take was a covert operation. I must assure the British people that it was that or leave Rashim to die. Judge our actions, but know that we tried our best with what we had available. I support this government and Richard Petron as Prime Minister wholeheartedly.

Thank you, I won’t be taking questions.

Emil Pearce, Work and Pensions Secretary and Former Prime Minister

Now that is serious in character response, thought it was important to do that in the midst of all the memes we’ve been doing. I would like to thank the speakers for the work they put into this scenario, it was great fun dealing with it, and even greater fun dealing with the fuckup it turned into. It has got people super engaged and can’t thank them enough for it.